Clouds on the Horizoh

 4/10/2026

Clouds on the Horizon

The US and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire, but economic warfare is here to stay.

Iran flexes Its Muscles, WSJ today

If one had no knowledge of the last few weeks, reading the press reports today would give on no clue as to the Israel and US attack on Iran. Now Iran wants to run a ‘toll booth’ on ships crossing the Hormuz Strait. Worse, Trump suggested the US and Iran might partner on this, an idea  the White House later denied.

There is a parallel to the US situation in 1973-74. The Stock Market had just hit new highs, then as now.  Interest rates were rising. The country was reeling from the energy shock of the first Arab embargo. The President was unpopular with the press and the country was politically divided. Nixon had a written enemies list. The Democrats finally pounced on the accidental admission Nixon taped Oval Office conversations. Nixon never recovered finally resigning rather than face impeachment. History never exactly repeats but consider recent events.

·      During a Ford plant visit January 13, trump replied to an auto worker comment with a vulgar hand gesture and a four-letter comment. Trump later rejects Ford’s plea for aluminum tariff relief.

·      Trump fires AG Bondie for failing to legally pursue his enemies.

·      On Easter Sunday Trump referred to Iran as ‘crazy bastards’ again invoking vulgar remarks regarding the Hormuz Strait. Yes, the same country he suggested partnering with a week later to share Hormuz tolls.

·      Trump threatens to wipe out the entire Iranian civilization.

·      On cue, Democrats file articles of impeachment against both President trump and SecDef Hegseth.

·       For good measure, Democrats call for the President’s removal via the 25^th Amendment.

In 973, the markets held up for several months and then began a relentless trudge to a 50% loss at Dow 577 by December, 1974.

All this has a familiar ring to me. Few if any of today’s financial advisors experienced this negative bout of social mood.

The stock market has managed a re-bound from the ‘military attack’ sell-off of 10%. It is remarkable that the markets are this high amid $100 oil. While August oil futures trade in the low $80s, uncertainty about the Middle East remains even higher than usual.

 The six weeks of military action have ended. Republicans facing mid-term elections have apparently begged for a halt in the fighting. And so here we are.

Thirty-year bond prices have fallen from 1181 to 112 and like stocks, have rebounded a  couple of points. It It is hard to see the FED justifying a rate cut amid $100 oil prices. That oil price uncertainty is likely to last for some time.

Trump mis-took the ease of removing Venezuela’s Maduro with  re-making a 6,000 year-old Persian Empire.

Caution is advised.

 

Oil and Stocks Rise

 4/9/2026

Crude oil is back up $5 to $99, yet stocks rose a half percentage point, just goes to show the wave theory has validity.  Stocks gained 1,200 DOW points on a drop in oil but rose again on a rise in oil.

If anything, the danger to the US from Iran is now much higher given their desire for revenge. Trump seems to have mistaken snatching Maduro same as snatching an entire country. Leaving the Iran regime in power is quite dangerous. 

My view is unchanged, wave two up in stocks could already be done, it should not last much longer. 

Oil is expensive here though we have plenty due to arbitrage. If oil were $65 here, tankers from the rest of the world would line up to by, it's a global market.  

 

More this weekend.  

Wave Two Opens Higher

 4/8/2026

OK, analysis, I should have gone aggressively short on the move down from all time highs, the crossover of PMO and drop of RSI. Given Trump ultimatum, no trade would have been better yesterday but a small addition not big loss. 

 In fact the upside occurred in Globex before the market openned in the US. No real follow thru, lots of short covering. Now RSI and PMO are near max, more possible but...

Now what Donald?  Iran can claim to have lasted the Great Satan, still in control of Hormuz, and can send rockets  to its neighbors? And now there is a two week window  for Iran to recover.

NDX Reistance

 the red line should mark a resistance area before the rally ends. 

Bond prices rallied a bit along with stocks. Bond and stock prices will resume their downtrends, patience.

I don't see trying gold and silver at this point. 

Do not believe calm has returned, check out this NBC report.  Those readers old enough to recall Watergate, can see echoes of that sentiment here. While the Republican controlled Senate will not likely vote to convict and I doubt the narrow control House will,  imagine  the Dems controlling both Houses after November.  My map for 226-227 is in fact  1973-74 where the DOW dropped 50% in two years.

___________ 

 

More than 70 lawmakers, including a handful of senators, said in separate social media posts that Trump's Cabinet needs to invoke the 25th Amendment to the Constitution and declare him unfit to serve, Congress should impeach and convict him, or both.

"The House and Senate must return to session. The House must pass articles of impeachment, and then the Senate must vote to convict and remove the President. Or, the cabinet and Vice President, with congressional concurrence, must invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump," Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., wrote in a statement on X.

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said he agreed with calls to invoke the 25th Amendment, adding: “No President in control of his senses would publicly promise to eradicate an entire civilization.”

wmT Update / Wave Two Ending

 4/7/2026

Sure glad I watched WMT from the sideline. After amazing growth the last five years

WMT tanked four bucks today. 

 

OK WMT is going to digital tags and the stock tanks, more likely long term profit taking. 

SPX

 I added short positions and more orders under the market. Lore has it that there is alwaus a fundamental event to justify the technicals, the technicals are saying sell, at least I think so. Here are some fundamentals

Profanity laced threat by Trump Easter Day

Military Action in Mid East upsetting idea that investing and living there is safe

Bernie Sanders wants to regulate AI - I saw a 65 inch flat TV in WMT today for $328, imagine what it would cost if Bernie were in charge of fair pricing for the working man's TV

Iran has placed women and children around sites Trump threatens to bomb 

EU is kinda sorta trying to help the Iran action

Oil is $114, gasoline $4 a rising, don't buy the story it will collapse when Hormuz clears

 DHS is unfunded

There is a shortage of computer chips

Interest rates are rising

Federal fraud in medicare, hospice, autism, 

Sh is short SPX, I added at market and placed orders at lower prices

If wave three down is confirmed this week, I will add more short positions 

 

  

  

 

 

 

Pizza

 4/6/2026

ONe does not go out of business because of poor pizza

 

It is always cash flow. Gna Maries 

Junk Bond Investors Head for Exits

 4/6/2026

Junk Bond Warning 

Higher Junk Yields are a sign junk investors are worried, junk bonds are as my friends as EWI say, stocks in drag, hmm. Wave Two in stocks should top this week 

 

Wave Two Continues

 4/6/2026

Wave Two up i major stock indexes continues, not done yet.

The move up in bond yields has been slow but is on track

No comment on oil or silver I have no positions there.